India‘s skies are warming fast due to rising passenger numbers and the fuel they burn. Minister of Civil Aviation Ram Mohan Naidu Kinjarapu told delegates at the India Sustainable Aviation Fuel Summit that Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) consumption in India could increase to 15–16 million tons by 2030 and to 30–31 million tons by 2040, a trend that reflects both economic opportunity and environmental impact.
Such increases are no surprise, especially with the sector expanding at a rate faster than most in transport, aided by an increase in globalization, disposable income, and connectivity. The minister suggested an average annual growth rate of 6.7%, warning of the pressures that growth has on national energy demand and carbon budgets.
Here comes Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)—the single most actionable way to reduce emissions in the near term for aviation. SAF produced from approved renewable or waste feedstocks can achieve lifecycle reductions of CO₂ emissions of up to 80% compared to normal jet fuel when maize is used. That’s an enormous reduction in CO₂, and it is a core part of any credible decarbonization plan for India’s burgeoning aviation market.
Furthermore, India’s demand for ATF is expected to double, if not triple, over the next two decades. Even though global SAF capacity is increasing, it is still several orders of magnitude below what will be required in the service of that demand. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and aviation market trackers expect SAF production to double to about 2 million tons in 2025; ballooning capacity is still barely a percent of total jet fuel demand. SAF supply is ramping up, but not nearly as quickly as overall demand.
Why Sustainable Aviation Fuel Is Important Beyond the Climate Numbers
SAF is not a one-size-fits-all physical or chemical specification or recipe, as it can be made from waste oil, municipal solid waste, agricultural biomass and residues, and other non-food feedstocks, and in doing so it adds value to material that would have been regarded as waste. Diversified SAF feedstocks allow for SAF to be sourced and produced in many potential locations, utilizing local waste streams to create climate solutions and create new jobs in the industry.
Getting to scale is a challenge. Currently, SAF costs significantly more than conventional ATF, and much of the investment in supply chains has not yet materialized into the market, and policy structures, such as blending mandates and tax incentives or government purchase guarantees, that ensure demand are not consistent across countries. This is precisely why India’s announcement that it is developing a national SAF policy matters—a clear policy framework might allow investors to assess the risks to build factories and create guaranteed demand for producers.
Next Steps
Policymakers will need to balance ambition with pragmatism. In any case, topics that are likely to shape India’s next moves include which feedstocks to prioritize; incentives for SAF producers and early-adopter airlines; upgrades to port and airport fuel handling; and ensuring that SAF supply does not conflict with food or land-use priorities.
For those that are wondering: think about a circular-economy angle—restaurants used cooking oil, and the food waste from cities, which would typically be dumped in landfills, could be rejuvenated and find itself propelling flights with the right investments. It is precisely these tangible pivots the minister and summit attendees articulated—substantial demand growth, a viable low-carbon technology, and an open policy window to relate the two.
Ultimately, the future of Indian aviation is being shaped by vast amounts of fuel. The decisions our leaders make today regarding SAF rules, feedstocks, and incentives will determine whether the future lifts millions of passengers while also reducing emissions or if it simply delivers growth at the expense of a larger footprint. The stakes are large, and the clock is ticking.
