By Ranga Chandrarathne
The 2024 Lok Sabha election has indeed defied the predictions of exit polls, resulting in a dramatic reshaping of India’s political landscape. Despite forecasts of a landslide victory for Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the outcome has delivered a surprising turn of events.
The Indian National Congress (INC)-led INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) Alliance’s substantial seat gains represent a significant shift in the nation’s governance, reflecting the electorate’s desire for change and a departure from the status quo. Rahul Gandhi’s leadership and the inclusive vision presented by the INDIA Alliance resonated deeply with a diverse electorate seeking alternative policies and approaches to governance.
However, the BJP’s ability to form the government, albeit with the support of two major allies – the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) – underscores the complexity of Indian politics. Despite ideological disparities, these alliances highlight the BJP’s strategic adaptability and its willingness to forge partnerships to maintain its grip on power.
The Waning Grip of Brand Modi
For over a decade, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have dominated Indian politics with strong leadership and nationalist rhetoric. Modi’s tenure has seen significant economic reforms, a push for digitalization, and assertive foreign policy moves. However, the 2024 election results highlight a growing disenchantment with the BJP’s approach and policies, indicating a potential shift in India’s political landscape.
Modi’s influence, once formidable, with help of its well-oiled propaganda machinery and pliable mainstream media, is now showing signs of decline. In his own constituency of Varanasi, his winning margin plummeted from over 480,000 votes in the previous election to around 150,000 votes. This significant reduction reflects waning voter confidence and support. Overall, Uttar Pradesh, considered a stronghold for the BJP, saw substantial support for the INDIA alliance, with the BJP coming in second. The situation in Ayodhya is even more telling. Despite the Ram Mandir being a key issue for the BJP, the party suffered an embarrassing defeat to the Samajwadi Party candidate. This loss in a city central to Hindu nationalism underscores a critical disconnect between the BJP’s priorities and the electorate’s evolving concerns.
Several factors contribute to this shift in public sentiment. Economic challenges, including unemployment and inflation, have dampened enthusiasm for Modi’s reforms. While digitalization has been transformative, it has also exacerbated the digital divide. Moreover, the BJP’s assertive and sometimes aggressive foreign policy has faced criticism for straining relations with neighbouring countries. His open support for Israel’s human rights violation has also annoyed Arab countries and liberal class across the world.
Furthermore, the BJP’s use of central agencies like the CBI, ED, and Income Tax to harass opposition parties has raised concerns about the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. The phenomenon of politicians from other parties joining the BJP, with nearly one-third of BJP candidates being such politicians, raises questions about the integrity of the political process and the BJP’s commitment to democratic principles.
The BJP’s brand of nationalism, once a unifying force among the Hindu majority, now appears to be a double-edged sword. It has galvanised a voter base but also alienated minority communities and fostered divisions. The social fabric of the nation, strained by sectarian rhetoric, is reacting in unpredictable ways, as evidenced by the recent election outcomes. This has impacted fence sitters among voters.
The farming community emerged as a significant force opposing Modi’s government, primarily due to mistreatment and stigmatisation during the protests against the farm laws. In particular, Sikh farmers from Punjab felt unfairly labelled as Khalistani insurgents seeking to destabilise India. Despite Modi eventually repealing all three contentious farming laws, the gesture failed to mollify the discontent among many farmers. Consequently, this dissatisfaction translated into electoral setbacks for Modi’s party, especially in regions dominated by farming communities such as the Jats. In Punjab, the impact was profound, with the ruling party failing to secure any seats.
Moreover, the disenchantment of Dalits adds another layer to the BJP’s challenges. Many Dalits fear changes to the constitution and the end of reservation policies, which have long been essential for their social and economic upliftment. This fear further contributes to the erosion of support for the BJP among marginalised communities.
However, the election also brought some unexpected gains for the BJP. The party achieved a clean sweep in Odisha and made substantial gains in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Additionally, the BJP secured a seat in Kerala, where it previously had no presence. These successes highlight that despite setbacks, the BJP remains a significant force in Indian politics.
The 2024 elections are a wake-up call for the BJP and Modi. The reduced winning margins and unexpected defeats signal that the electorate is seeking change, potentially valuing inclusive growth and stability over aggressive nationalism. For the BJP, this means reassessing its approach and reconnecting with the diverse needs and aspirations of the Indian populace.
Rahul Gandhi’s Resurgence
Rahul Gandhi, often dismissed by critics as a reluctant and ineffective leader, has dramatically altered the political landscape with a determined effort to reconnect with India’s grassroots. His Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India March) has become a powerful symbol of his commitment to addressing the nation’s real issues and unifying its diverse populace. Key elements of his success include extensive grassroots mobilisation, where he engaged directly with farmers, labourers, students, and marginalised communities, building a strong movement that contrasts sharply with the BJP’s top-down governance.
Gandhi’s inclusive vision, emphasising unity, secularism, and social justice, resonated with a broad spectrum of voters, with the Congress manifesto focusing on job creation, agricultural reforms, and social welfare schemes. Strategic alliances with regional parties like the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) consolidated the anti-BJP vote, proving crucial in key states. His leadership evolution from a perceived reluctant politician to a determined leader has reassured voters of his capability to lead the country. This resurgence of Rahul Gandhi has revitalised the Indian National Congress and injected new energy into Indian politics, challenging the long-standing dominance of the BJP and Prime Minister Modi, and indicating a potential new chapter in India’s democratic journey.
The New Political Landscape
The 2024 election results have ushered in a new era in Indian politics, as Prime Minister Modi’s high-voltage communal campaign targeting Muslims failed, even in Uttar Pradesh, the communal cauldron of India. Rahul Gandhi’s rise as a powerful opposition leader will restrain Modi and marks a return of the Congress to the centre stage of Indian politics after a decade. The mandate reflects a clear desire for change, emphasising economic stability, social harmony, and democratic integrity.
For the BJP, the outcome is a moment of introspection. The party, while retaining a significant presence, must address the underlying causes of its electoral setback. The challenge for Modi and his colleagues will be to reinvent their approach and reconnect with an electorate that has clearly sought a different path.
The challenge now for Congress is to sustain this momentum and capitalise on their renewed relevance. It is crucial for the party to strengthen its organisational structure and expand its reach to ensure consistent engagement with the electorate. The Congress must continue to push for inclusive growth and counter the BJP’s divisive agenda with policies that address economic disparities, social injustice, and the need for democratic integrity. By doing so, the Congress can work towards regaining power and providing a credible alternative to the BJP’s governance.
Conclusion
Indeed, the potential for ideological disparities to strain political alliances is a well-documented phenomenon, and it poses a significant challenge to the sustainability of the coalition formed by the BJP in the aftermath of the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The ability of the BJP to reconcile conflicting ideologies and foster cooperation among its diverse partners will be crucial in determining the longevity of the coalition government.
It’s indeed plausible that the Congress-led INDIA Alliance could expand its coalition by attracting leaders like Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, given their past advocacy for secular and inclusive policies. Political alliances often hinge on a mix of ideological alignment, strategic calculations, and promises of power-sharing and resources. The Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, may offer a vision of governance that resonates with these leaders, along with enticing incentives like influential cabinet positions and increased financial support for their states. While predicting political developments can be challenging, the possibility of a new coalition emerging within the next 6 months to a year cannot be discounted, especially considering the fluid nature of Indian politics.
The writer is a MBA holder and writes articles on a wide range of subjects including Business, Economics, Finance, Politics, Literature, Music, Cinema, Theatre, Culture and Religion for both Sri Lankan and International publications.
